Adelaide Crows vs St Kilda Tips - Crows to cash in on Saints outfit hit hard by injury

The Crows head in as favourites for their season opener and can take advantage of a Saints outfit that come in with a number of injuries, as well as some questionable pre-season form. 

Adelaide enjoy the home ground advantage and have been convincing winners at the venue against St Kilda in recent times, while they tuned up with a three-point win in the Community Series against last year’s premiers, Brisbane. 

St Kilda battled in their hitout, going down to Port Adelaide by 44 points. I suspect it might be a similar result for Ross Lyon’s side to begin their 2025 campaign. 

Head to Head

 

Adelaide have won the past two matches between the two sides, a 32 point victory in Round 18 last season, as well as a 52-point margin in Round 9 of 2023. Both were held at the Adelaide Oval. The Crows have won seven of nine at the venue against St Kilda. 

Rory Laird and Jordan Dawson have averaged 27 disposals in their past three matches against the Saints. Mason Wood has kicked seven goals in his past four matches against the Crows. 

Matthew Nicks’ side were inconsistent in 2024, finishing in 15th-place with eight wins, one draw, and fourteen losses, missing the finals. This came despite some high expectations as they were unlucky not to make the eight in 2023. 

The Crows displayed a strong contested possession focus last year, ranking 2nd in this measure and were 6th for clearances but this did not translate to inside 50s (13th in this measure). 

In the 2025 pre-season, the Crows secured a three-point victory over the Brisbane Lions, courtesy of a late goal from their skipper, Jordan Dawson. He picked up 24 disposals and two goals in the win. Darcy Fogarty was a presence up forward with three majors, while Matt Crouch had 29 disposals. 

Heading into Round 1, Adelaide has nearly a full squad, with only reserve ruck Kieran Strachan missing for 2025. Izak Rankine will play more midfield, and new recruits Alex Neal-Bullen and James Peatling provide strong second rotation options, while Rory Laird's move to half-back adds stability to the defence. Youngsters Sid Draper and Dan Curtin are pushing for senior debuts, and Riley Thilthorpe, Peatling, and Jake Soligo impressed in match simulations. 

B: J.Worrell, M.Keane, R.Laird

St Kilda had the better of Adelaide in 2024 from a win-loss point of view, winning 11 of their 23 matches. The Saints went down to Adelaide in Round 18 but managed to claim five of their last six matches, including victories over finals bound Geelong and Carlton in their last two. 

However, the injury curse has hit at Moorabbin and the Saints suffered a confidence sapping defeat to Port Adelaide in the AAMI Community Series, going down to the Power by 44 points. 

They conceded 10 of the first 11 goals in that match and were smashed in the disposal count (309-482) with Port Adelaide controlling uncontested possessions. They did lead the inside-50 count, however, and were efficient when heading forward. 

The Saints' pre-season has seen them suffer a number of injuries to key players ahead of their season opener. Mitch Owens is dealing with shoulder discomfort, Cooper Sharman requires thumb surgery, and Max King is recovering from knee surgery, leaving his availability for Round 1 uncertain. Ruckman Rowan Marshall and defender Jack Sinclair are expected to play, but Liam Henry will miss as he continues knee rehab. Dougal Howard, Mattaes Phillipou, and Paddy Dow are out long-term, with Howard missing three months, Phillipou sidelined for up to four months, and Dow missing the start of the season due to a knee infection. 

Hugo Garcia and Hugh Boxshall have been young players to impress and are in line for selection, while Irish rookie Liam O’Connell could be a surprise Round 1 inclusion. Other potential debutants include Tobie Travaglia, Max Hall, and Harry Boyd, who may step in for Sharman or King if needed.