Essendon vs Adelaide Crows Tips - Bombers to prevail in Round 2 action at the MCG

The two sides had contrasting results last weekend. Essendon pushed Hawthorn, except for where it counted- on the scoreboard. The Bombers led the early season flag favourites in clearances, contested possessions and inside 50s but couldn't translate that to the scoreboard, going down by 26 points. 

Later on the weekend, Adelaide came out firing against St Kilda, giving the Saints a lesson in the 63-point win. Izak Rankine starred with 28 disposals and two goals and shapes as a potential matchwinner here. 

The Crows forward line also clicked with Darcy Fogarty and Riley Thilthorpe combining for two goals, while their skipper, Jordan Dawson, provided plenty of influence around the contest. 

There are some slight question marks around the St Kilda form, however, and I think the Bombers are the value in the head to head betting. The scoreline against the Hawks did not reflect some of the dominance they had at different stages of the game. 

Take the home side for the win. Expect Zach Merrett to find plenty of the footy.  

Essendon have an excellent recent record against Adelaide, having won seven of the past eight matches between the two sides. The Crows win, however, came the last time the two sides met, which was back in Round 19 of 2024. Ben Keays starred with five goals, while Darcy Fogarty and Josh Rachele kicked four and three apiece. Zach Merrett helped himself to 30 disposals for the Bombers. 

Merrett has averaged over 32 disposals in his past three matches against Adelaide. Kyle Langford is a notable out for Essendon has booted seven goals from his past three appearances against the Crows. The past four matches between the two sides have been decided by 18 points or fewer. Three of those were less than a one goal final margin. 

The result against Hawthorn in Round 1 made it seven losses from the past eight matches for Essendon, a sequence that stretches back to Round 18 in 2024. Six of those losses have been by 39.5 points are fewer. 

However, Brad Scott’s side traditionally start the season off well and at one stage last year were 8-2 and a draw before the wheels began to fall off. 

Over the course of 2024, the Bombers topped the competition for disposals, due to their use of uncontested possessions to set up play from half-back. They were 4th for inside 50s and if they can work on their efficiency when heading in, they will be hard to stop against the Crows. 

Kyle Langford pulled up with a hamstring injury out of the Hawthorn match and will miss 4-6 weeks. He is joined on the sidelines by Jordan Ridley (concussion). Peter Wright and Matt Guelfi are others already on the sidelines. Darcy Parish and Alwyn Davey Jnr are nearing returns, while Will Setterfield is managing a groin injury.  Lewis Hayes, a second-round pick in 2022, could make his debut to replace Ridley, while pre-season recruit Tom Edwards is an option to step in for Langford. In their 22 against the Hawks, the Bombers fielded just one small forward, so Jade Gresham could be elevated from the sub role. Untried Saad El-Hawli and small forward Jye Menzie were part of the 26-man squad in round one.

Like Essendon, Adelaide finished off 2024 poorly, dropping four of their last five matches to finish with a win-loss record of 8-14-1. 

They ranked 2nd in the competition for contested possessions and 6th for clearances. Matthew Nicks’ side will look to utilise this strength to set up the game for their forwards, who were dominant against St Kilda last weekend. The loss of Ridley from Essendon could be key here with the likes of Riley Thilthorpe and Darcy Fogarty looking to cash in.  

The Crows will need to overcome a moderate interstate record that saw them win just three of 10 last season. Two of those three wins came at Marvel Stadium, both to the tune of two points with one against Carlton and one against Essendon. 

The Crows just about have a full cohort to choose from with just Kieran Strachan the only to feature on the official injury list. Chayce Jones will be available for selection after recovering from an AC joint injury. Veteran forward Taylor Walker is being managed, a plan that will continue throughout the season. Luke Nankervis is in the mix for selection. Sam Berry and Luke Pedlar are also pushing for a spot in a team that will be tough to break into this week