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St Kilda vs Geelong Tips - Geelong to overcome recent curse against St Kilda at Marvel Stadium with a win

Adam Cusworth

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Last updated: 20 Mar 2025

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Adam Cusworth 20 Mar 2025

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St Kilda seeks redemption after a 63-point loss to Adelaide.
Geelong boasts strong form, with a decisive win over Fremantle.
Geelong likely to dominate, with key contributions from Cameron and Smith.

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - AUG 17: Patrick Dangerfield of the Cats evades Zak Jones of the Saints during the 2024 AFL Round 23 match between the St Kilda Saints and the Geelong Cats at Marvel Stadium on August 17, 2024 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

St Kilda vs Geelong Preview
Head to Head
St Kilda Form Analysis
St Kilda Team News
St Kilda Team List
Geelong Form Analysis
Geelong Team News
Geelong Team List

St Kilda vs Geelong Preview

Can St Kilda respond after suffering a big defeat to kick off their 2025 campaign?

The Saints were disappointing on the road against the Adelaide Crows, showing little resistance to go down by 63 points.

Ross Lyon’s side leaked 21 goals in the loss and struggled to cover the loss of a number of key players from injury. Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (27 disposals) and Jack Macrae (34) provided some resistance in the middle.

They face a Geelong outfit that were led by their new recruit, Bailey Smith, who helped himself to 32 disposals in the Cats 78-point win over Fremantle, while some familiar names fired up forward in Jeremy Cameron, Tyson Stengle and Ollie Henry, with that trio combining for 10 goals.

Hard to see the Saints turning things around here and the line looks well in reach for Geelong

Geelong have won nine of their past 13 matches.
Jeremy Cameron has averaged over three goals per game in his last 10 matches
Jack Sinclair has averaged 29 disposals in his past three matches against Geelong.
Tom Stewart has averaged 23 disposals in his past four matches against St Kilda

Head to Head

St Kilda have won two of their past three against Geelong, including the Round 23 enctounter between the two sides last year by 18 points. That was held at Marvel Stadium. The Saints have won their past three at the venue against the Cats.

Jack Sinclair has averaged 29 disposals in his past three matches against Geelong. The Cats’ Tom Stewart has averaged 23. Six of the past seven matches between the two sides have been decided by less than 39.5 points.

St Kilda Form Analysis

St Kilda had a win-loss record of 11-12 in 2024, closing off with three staright wins to add respectability towards the end of the home and away season. One of those wins was against Geelong at Marvel Stadium. They went 7-5 at the venue last year. Six of their last seven games at the venue were wins and if that is anything to go by they can improve for this assignment. Interstate form was 2-5.

St Kilda played in just five matches out of 2024 that went above the 39.5 margin. The Saints defence was a highlight last year, ranking 5th for fewest points against, but scoring was an issue (15th).

On the disposal front, the Saints will look to be patient and chip the ball around before pulling the trigger. They rank 3rd for uncontested possessions in their last 10 matches, with Jack Sinclair and Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera leading the way, both going at 25+.

St Kilda Team News

Mitch Owens missed last weekend but aims to be available for Saturday's game against Geelong. Max King will be out for another fortnight. The Sainsts may regain Liam Henry, but will still be without Dan Butler and Cooper Sharman in the forward line. Hugh Boxshall and Isaac Keeler have been named in the 26-man squad and are in contention for debuts.

St Kilda Team List

Geelong Form Analysis

Geelong have won nine of their past 13 matches. They rank 2nd in the competition for points scored in their last 10 matches.

Key contributers in that time have been Jeremy Cameron (32 goals), Ollie Henry with 19 and Tyson Stengle with 18.

The Cats have been a bit hit and miss at Marvel Stadium, losing three of their past five at the venue. Their focus tends to be on contested possessions (ranking 6th over their past 10 matches) and clearances (3rd), banging the ball inside 50 (6th) to provide their range of forwards an opportunity to capitalise.

Geelong Team News

There are unlikely to be too many changes at the Cattery. Jed Bews, Tanner Bruhn and Cam Guthrie are out indefinitely. Jake Kolodjashnij is edging closer but still a couple of weeks away.

Geelong Team List

Verdict

St Kilda v Geelong

Geelong to cover the line with Jeremy Cameron amongst the goals

Geelong Cats -22.5

Handicap +22.5

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