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Sydney Swans vs Hawthorn Tips - Hawks to open AFL 2025 season with a win

Adam Cusworth

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Last updated: 04 Mar 2025

Adam Cusworth 04 Mar 2025

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Sydney won six of their last 12 matches in 2025, Hawthorn won 12 of their last 15 matches
Jai Newcombe has averaged 26.5 disposals in his last 10 matches
Sydney Swans face injury challenges impacting key players

Expired

Jai Newcombe can star for the Hawks (Getty Images)

Sydney Swans vs Hawthorn Preview
Head to Head
Sydney Swans Form Analysis
Sydney Swans Team News
Sydney Swans Team List
Hawthorn Form Analysis
Hawthorn Team News
Hawthorn Team List

Sydney Swans vs Hawthorn Preview

Little separates the two sides in the betting in what shapes as a close one between a couple of last year’s finalists.

Sydney have had the upper hand over Hawthorn in recent seasons with an emphatic 75-point win in Round 7 last year before Hawthorn went on their charge towards September.

The Hawks were smashed early in 2023 the last time they ventured to the SCG but can reverse their recent form against the red and the white.

Hawthorn top the competition for goals scored in their last 10 matches at 15.9 per game

The Hawks are 2nd for disposals in their last 10 matches at 367 per game, while Sydney are 13th with 338.

Sydney won six of their last 12 matches in 2025, Hawthorn won 12 of their last 15 matches.

Jai Newcombe has averaged 26.5 disposals in his last 10 matches.

Head to Head

The two sides met just once in 2025 with Sydney giving Hawthorn a footballing lesson in Round 7, taking out the MCG clash by 76 points. Nick Blakey gathered 30 disposals in the big win, while Logan McDonald and Isaac Heeney booted three goals apiece.

The Swans have won five of their past six matches against the Hawks. Hawthorn’s win in that period came at the SCG in 2021, a 38 point margin for the brown and gold. Sydney took out the most recent match at the venue by 81 points in Round 2, 2023.

The winning margin has been over 39.5 for Sydney the last three times the two sides have played. Six of the past seven matches at the SCG between the two sides have been decided by 39.5 points or less. Four of those were less than 10 points.

Sydney Swans Form Analysis

Sydney took out their practice match against the Gold Coast Sun by 21 points at People First Stadium on the Gold Coast.

Tom McCartin booted four goals with the former defender set to line up as a forward against Hawthorn. Matt Roberts had 27 disposals from 82% game time, while Angus Sheldrick had 22 from 73% game time.

The Swans edged Gold Coast for dispsoals with 367-360, while they converted well inside 50 from limited opportunities, heading inside for 46 times to 63.

Sydney Swans Team News

Errol Gulden is a major casualty for Sydney out of the Suns match with the gun wingman suffering a fracture in his ankle. He faces a lengthy stint on the sidelines

Brodie Grundy faces a test in his quest to line up. The former Magpie suffered a knock to his knee at training in the lead up to the Gold Coast match and missed that outing.

The Swans are hoping that Callum Mills and Tom Papley will be available, with that duo battling lower leg injuries, missing the Suns hitout.

Sydney Swans Team List

- coming soon

Hawthorn Form Analysis

Hawthorn went down to the Western Bulldogs by 11 points in their practice match.

The Hawks were slow out of the blocks, trailing by 22 points at half-time. They rallied in the second half to hit the lead in the last term before the Dogs scored some steadying goals.

Massimo D’Ambrosio picked up 29 disposals from 82% game time, while Karl Amon had 25 from 60%.

The Hawks had more disposals than the Bulldogs (410-398) but conceded 62 inside 50’s, while entering tha area on just 41 occasions themselves.

Hawthorn Team News

Josh Battle and Tom Barrass line up in the brown and gold for the first time with the high profile recruits to shore up the Hawks backline.

Calsher Dear and Changkuoth Jiath will be missing due to injury, while Mitch Lewis and James Blanck are eyeing mid-season returns from their respective knee injuries.

Hawthorn Team List

- coming soon

Verdict

Sydney v Hawthorn

Hawthorn are backed to claim an opening round win and Jai Newcombe is tipped to collect 25+ disposals in the game.

Hawthorn

Head to Head

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