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Sydney Swans vs Melbourne Demons Tips & Preview - Dees to grind down Swans in AFL opener

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: 07 Mar 2024

Jeremy Darke 07 Mar 2024

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Sydney Swans vs Melbourne Demons predictions for Thursday’s AFL game
The game will be played at the SCG
Who will win the season opener of the AFL 2024 season?
Preview, stats, team news & more

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Max Gawn (Getty Images)

Sydney Swans vs Melbourne Demons Preview
Head to Head
Sydney Swans Form
Sydney Swans Team News
Sydney Swans Team List
Melbourne Demons Form
Melbourne Demons Team News
Melbourne Demons Team List

Sydney Swans vs Melbourne Demons Preview

Melbourne's defence is tipped to be a mirror image of its 2023 self and that will reflect in a Round 1 win over the Swans, as the match follows the opening round trend of Unders.

Sydney had a very injury ridden and disrupted 2023 campaign so a lot of the chatter is around the Swannies pushing for a top-four finish this year. On the other side, there are outlandish predictions that the Demons will fall from the top after another straight sets departure from the finals last season.

The Demons are backed to do what the Demons do and suck the life out of Sydney, taking away their ball movement and ensuring that it stays inside their attacking half of the field.

I expect that this game will be won at the back for the Demons as they restrict the scoring of the Swans and keep the game total under 165.5 points.

Melbourne beat Sydney in both meetings in 2023.
Melbourne won 7 of their final 8 regular season games in 2023.
15 of 25 Melbourne games hit the Under in 2023.
5 of the last 8 games between Sydney and Melbourne have gone Under the game total.

Head to Head

Melbourne beat Sydney twice last season and the manner in which that did it was dominating. The Dees did the Swans by 50 in their first meeting in round 3, kicking 21 goals in their 134-84 victory.

Maybe more relevant is their round 27 victory where they sent the Swans into the 2023 AFL Finals scoring just 56 points in the final round of the season with Melbourne winning 77-56.

Sydney Swans Form

The Swans ended last season bowing out to Carlton in week 1 of the finals, going down in a real nail biter losing by just one goal 74-68.

Sydney ended their regular season strong once they began to adjust to the constant reshuffle due to injury.

The 2022 grand finalists won six of their last eight games, losing only to Melbourne in the final round, However GWS was the only other top 8 team that they beat in their winning run with all of their six victories by a margin of 1-39.

Sydney Swans Team News

The Swans had two major signings in the offseason, picking up Taylor Adams from Collingwood and Brodie Grundy from Melbourne.

Grundy has impressed heavily during the preseason with the Swans as he looks to find his All-Australian form once again in the Harbour City.

All eyes will be on Adams and his connection with young-gun Errol Gulden, who took out the Swans Best and Fairest in 2023 after a huge breakout season in just his third year in the AFL.

Melbourne Demons Form

Melbourne went out in straight sets for the second year running in the AFL finals, losing to eventual premiers Collingwood 60-53 in week 1 and going down to Carlton 73-71 in week 2.

The result is obviously disappointing for the Demons who finished the year inside the top 4 and were eying off a chance to play for or even win the grand final.

The Dees were the best defensive team in the AFL last season in relation to opposition points conceding 1660 points at a game average of just 72.17.

Melbourne also ranked well in inside 50s (2nd) and contested possessions (3rd) last season, which suggests that they will be contenders at the top of the AFL again in 2024.

Melbourne Demons Team News

Shane McAdam has moved to Melbourne from the Adelaide Crows and will likely slot into the forward line with Jacob van Rooyen and Kysaiah Pickett.

No. 7 draft pick Caleb Windsor has done all he could to get a spot in the starting 18 and will likely play in the center from round 1.

Verdict

Sydney v Melbourne

Melbourne’s defence is set to be a replica of what it was in 2023 and it can strangle the Swans, getting the Demons the victory.

Due to the tight defence of Melbourne this game is backed to go Under the game total.

Melbourne Demons

Match Result

@-104.17 - 2 Units

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Under 165.5

Game Total

@-109.89 - 3 Units

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