2023 December Gold Cup Tips - Odds, trends and tips for Cheltenham

Jon Vine

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Last updated: 15 Dec 2023

Jon Vine 15 Dec 2023

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Free ante-post guide to the 2023 December Gold Cup
This Grade Three Handicap Chase takes place at Cheltenham on Saturday 16th December
Fugitif is our ante-post selection at 10/1

Expired

Fugitif (left) and Il Ridotto (right) fighting out a finish at Cheltenham on Trials Day. (Getty)

The big betting race at Cheltenham on Saturday is the December Gold Cup. Formerly known as the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup, this Grade Three Handicap Chase has been won by greats like Flyingbolt, Pendil, Exotic Dancer and Frodon, who scored in 2016 and '18.

We've taken a look through the latest betting for the December Gold Cup and listed some key recurring trends, before picking out our top two betting tips.

2023 December Gold Cup Odds

Name	Odds
Thunder Rock	7/2
Il Ridoto	6/1
Monmiral	7/1
So Scottish	7/1
Fakir D'Oudairies	8/1
Fugitif	10/1
Easy As That	10/1
Bar	12/1

2023 December Gold Cup Trends

All of the past 15 winners had run at least once already that season
14 of the last 15 winners had won or placed around Cheltenham before
13 of the last 15 winners were trained by British trainers
12 of the last 15 winners were aged between six and eight
12 of the last 15 winners won or placed last time out
11 of the last 15 winners returned an SP of 12/1 or shorter
10 of the last 15 winners had run in that season's Paddy Power Gold Cup
9 of the last 15 winners carried 10-12 or less (8 of the last 10 carried less than 11 stone)

Fakir D'Oudairies will carry 12-00 into Saturday's main event. Joseph O'Brien has bypassed the Cheltenham Festival in favour of the Melling Chase at Aintree in both of the past two seasons, but Fakir D'Oudairies has placed second in both the Arkle and the Ryanair Chase on his last two visits to Prestbury Park.

There's no doubting that Fakir D'Oudairies has the class to cope with top-weight and his reappearance record is strong. Mark Walsh's mount will, however, have to give a good deal of weight to a handful of dangerous, race-fit rivals and, as the trends above illustrate, having a recent run to build from is vitally important.

2023 December Gold Cup Tip 1 - Fugitif

Before this meeting was abandoned 12 months ago, I put up Il Ridoto and FUGITIF (10/1) as my two against the field in my 2022 December Gold Cup preview. Richard Hobson's star then bolted up at Chepstow, before finishing a length second to Il Ridoto here at Cheltenham on Trials Day, where the two jumped the last together but Harry Cobden's front-runner had a little more left in the tank.

Fugitif was then chucked up to a rating of 153 following a runner-up finish to Seddon in the Magners Plate Handicap at the Festival, where he finished four places ahead of Il Ridoto. On his reappearance in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, Hobson's eight-year-old again followed Il Ridoto home in fourth, having travelled powerfully throughout the contest.

I'm happy to write that slightly disappointing finish off to ring-rust and Hobson thought his stable star would come on plenty for that reappearance. The handicapper dropped Fugitif's mark by two pounds following that run and switching to the more testing New Course should suit this strong stayer.

2023 December Gold Cup Tip 2 - No Further Bets

The case for Thunder Rock is an obvious one, given how well his recent form has been boosted this season. 7/2, however, isn't a great price. No disrespect to Bryony Frost, but I'd fancy backing the quirky Il Ridoto if Harry Cobden was aboard. Instead, Cobden rides Monmiral, who's never really impressed me over fences.

So Scottish featured in my 20 To Follow for this season and I toyed with the idea of having a saver on Emmet Mullins raider. However, I don't think you're getting particularly good value for money at 6/1. Torn And Frayed and Do Your Job hold appeal at longer prices, but as there are only 12 runners in the field, I can't envisage either finishing in the first three places. I'll stick with Fugitif (Into 8/1 from 10s since we published on Tuesday) as my sole selection.

Verdict

2023 December Gold Cup

Fugitif is my ante-post selection for the 2023 December Gold Cup.

Fugitif

2023 December Gold Cup

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